Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 63.0¢
- Implied chance
- 63.0%
- Return if right
- 58.7%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 158.7 shares at 63.0¢ each.
YES wins: $158.73 back, a profit of $58.73. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $62.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 40.0¢
- Implied chance
- 40.0%
- Return if right
- 150.0%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 250.0 shares at 40.0¢ each.
NO wins: $250.00 back, a profit of $150.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $159.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.