Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 22.0¢
- Implied chance
- 22.0%
- Return if right
- 354.5%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 454.5 shares at 22.0¢ each.
YES wins: $454.55 back, a profit of $354.55. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $58.28 of that profit. Without it you would make $412.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 83.0¢
- Implied chance
- 83.0%
- Return if right
- 20.5%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 120.5 shares at 83.0¢ each.
NO wins: $120.48 back, a profit of $20.48. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $24.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.