Houthis successfully target shipping by September 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
YES wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 13.0¢
- Implied chance
- 13.0%
- Return if right
- 669.2%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 769.2 shares at 13.0¢ each.
NO wins: $769.23 back, a profit of $669.23. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $230.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 20, 09:27 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Yemeni government escalates attacks against Houthis: What’s next?Al Jazeera · 2d ago
- Houthis Claim Strike on Saudi Vessel as Red Sea Violence EscalatesThe New York Times · 3d ago
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait faces growing threat as Houthi attacks raise fears of a second HormuzFox News · 4d ago
- Houthis launch new attacks on al-Makha and Marib as Yemen conflict escalatesAl Jazeera · 4d ago
- Yemeni government forces hit back after new Houthi offensiveAl Jazeera · 4d ago
- Yemen’s government says Houthi strikes hit residential areas in MaribAl Jazeera · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Houthis successfully target shipping by September 30, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.