Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 33.0¢
- Implied chance
- 33.0%
- Return if right
- 203.0%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 303.0 shares at 33.0¢ each.
YES wins: $303.03 back, a profit of $203.03. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $207.69.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 68.0¢
- Implied chance
- 68.0%
- Return if right
- 47.1%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 147.1 shares at 68.0¢ each.
NO wins: $147.06 back, a profit of $47.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $48.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 03:41 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Yemeni government in military and diplomatic push to reverse Houthi gainsAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- How much is UK supporting Saudi Arabia in its war with Iran-backed Houthis?Al Jazeera · 14h ago
- Saudi Arabia’s King Salman slams targeting of Mecca by ‘terrorist’ HouthisAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Why are the Houthis fighting for Yemen’s Kahboub Mountains?Al Jazeera · 2d ago
- Up to 169 killed in Yemen as Houthis battle for Red Sea coastal heightsThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Middle East takes center stage at UN as regional leaders confront Iran war, Gaza and Houthi threatFox News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.