House favorite on November 2 wins the election?

House favorite on November 2 wins the election?$28k liquidity$9k volumecloses 1.3mo
MidtermsPoliticsElectionsDerivativesUS ElectionUnited States
Trade on Polymarket
Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY YES

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Cost
93.0¢
Implied chance
93.0%
Return if right
7.5%
Spread cost
7%

If you put in $100

You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.

YES wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.11.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

Buy NO on Polymarket

BUY NO

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We keep it in one place with the price you saw, and email you when it settles or moves sharply. It is free, and the screener stays open to everyone either way.

Cost
8.0¢
Implied chance
8.0%
Return if right
1150.0%
Spread cost
7%

If you put in $100

You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.

NO wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $83.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

0%25%50%75%100%93%Sep 22Sep 23

Latest: Sep 23, 09:54 PM

Latest news

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No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “House favorite on November 2 wins the election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party with the higher hourly odds value in the "House Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026 wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If no hourly odds value is published for a party for the specified window (shown as "NO_PRINT"), that party's most recent published hourly odds value will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for either party in the "House Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either party from the listing, the most recent hourly odds values published for the two parties will be used. If the Democratic Party's and the Republican Party's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", or if no hourly odds value has been published for either party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party's count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for the favorite is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the "House Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/house-control-2026.html and on each party's detail page, reached by clicking the party's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered. The resolution sources for control of the House will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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House favorite on November 2 wins the election? (93% chance) | PullToPar