Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.5¢
- Implied chance
- 1.5%
- Return if right
- 6566.7%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 6666.7 shares at 1.5¢ each.
YES wins: $6666.67 back, a profit of $6566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1333.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $7900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.0¢
- Implied chance
- 99.0%
- Return if right
- 1.0%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.
NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.27.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Iranian protesters feel Trump didn't follow through on promises, New York Times reportsCBS News · 4h ago
- Iranian hackers attacked our water systems. Here are 5 things our leaders need to do nowFox News · 13h ago
- Oil prices climb as Iranian demands cloud outlook for Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera · 19h ago
- Iranian leaders demand U.S. pay for war damage or will keep Strait of Hormuz closedCBS News · 21h ago
- Iranian Demands Disrupt Trump’s Plan to End the WarYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- ‘The wealthy poor’: Soaring food prices hurt Iranian familiesAl Jazeera · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.