Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 12?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.3¢
- Implied chance
- 0.3%
- Return if right
- 33233.3%
- Spread cost
- 33%
If you put in $100
You get 33333.3 shares at 0.3¢ each.
YES wins: $33333.33 back, a profit of $33233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $49900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.9¢
- Implied chance
- 99.9%
- Return if right
- 0.1%
- Spread cost
- 50%
If you put in $100
You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.
NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.20.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 12, 07:25 AM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Hong Kong considers widening tax reforms to proprietary trading firmsYahoo Finance · 21h ago
- Hong Kong Tech Index Set for Overhaul With More Firms, AI FocusBloomberg · 1d ago
- Hong Kong May Expand Tax Breaks to Trading Firms, FT SaysBloomberg · 1d ago
- Hong Kong records hottest day ever as Typhoon Dolphin fuels heatwaveThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Hong Kong's Iconic Diners Go GlobalBloomberg · 5d ago
- China’s Central Bank Adds Gold in Hong Kong to Support HubBloomberg · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
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