Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.0¢
- Implied chance
- 5.0%
- Return if right
- 1900.0%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 2000.0 shares at 5.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2000.00 back, a profit of $1900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $222.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $2122.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Iran's early attacks on Bahrain caught Navy families and sailors by surpriseCBS News · 3d ago
- Iran-GCC summit: What’s behind the meeting, why is Bahrain not attending?Al Jazeera · 11d ago
- Bahrain says it will not participate in Iran’s proposed Hormuz meetingAl Jazeera · 12d ago
- ‘Blew the hell out of it’: How Iran damaged US bases in Bahrain, JordanAl Jazeera · 13d ago
- Acting Navy secretary says Iran 'blew the hell out of' US base in Bahrain: ReportThe Hill · 14d ago
- Iran war live: Tehran claims attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, IraqAl Jazeera · 23d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by Decembe…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.