Grok 4.6 released on August 12, 2026?

Q: Grok 4.6 released on August 12, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 100%. A YES share costs 99.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 0.1% over 6h.

Grok 4.6 released on...?$1k liquidity$990 volumecloses 4h

AIGrokTechBig TechElon Musk

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 99.9¢
Implied chance: 99.9%
Return if right: 0.1%
Spread cost: 50%

If you put in $100

You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.

YES wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.20.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 0.3¢
Implied chance: 0.3%
Return if right: 33233.3%
Spread cost: 33%

If you put in $100

You get 33333.3 shares at 0.3¢ each.

NO wins: $33333.33 back, a profit of $33233.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $49900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 12, 08:23 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Grok 4.6 released on August 12, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public. Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market). Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.