Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.2¢
- Implied chance
- 4.2%
- Return if right
- 2281.0%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 2381.0 shares at 4.2¢ each.
YES wins: $2380.95 back, a profit of $2280.95. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $793.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $3074.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.9¢
- Implied chance
- 97.9%
- Return if right
- 2.1%
- Spread cost
- 34%
If you put in $100
You get 102.1 shares at 97.9¢ each.
NO wins: $102.15 back, a profit of $2.15. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Turkey Resumes Black Sea Ship Transits Via Straits After DelaysBloomberg · 1d ago
- Turkey says Iran not target of pact with Saudi Arabia, PakistanThe Hill · 2d ago
- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey sign defense pact as Iran repeats that Hormuz deal is closeCBS News · 2d ago
- Dune Oil provides update on rebrand, Turkey exploration plans - ICYMIYahoo Finance · 2d ago
- Saudi, Turkey, Pakistan pact comes amid US-Iran war falloutFrance 24 · 2d ago
- How Turkey uses drones to tackle firesFrance 24 · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of Greece and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Greek and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Missiles or drone strikes that are intercepted will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface-to-air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.