Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.9¢
- Implied chance
- 3.9%
- Return if right
- 2464.1%
- Spread cost
- 38%
If you put in $100
You get 2564.1 shares at 3.9¢ each.
YES wins: $2564.10 back, a profit of $2464.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1517.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $3981.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.0¢
- Implied chance
- 99.0%
- Return if right
- 1.0%
- Spread cost
- 60%
If you put in $100
You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.
NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.51.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 28, 04:15 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Why Many Iranians Are Losing Hope After Six Months of WarThe New York Times · 11h ago
- Why Many Iranians Are Losing Hope After Six Months of WarThe New York Times · 11h ago
- Centcom says Iranian sea mines cleared from Strait of Hormuz transit routesThe Hill · 18h ago
- Iranian operatives used AI to impersonate AmericansAxios · 1d ago
- Millions of barrels of Iranian oil sit beyond Trump blockade as he vows ‘zero leakage’Fox News · 2d ago
- Iranian Drama ‘A Bit of Light’ Sells Wide Ahead of Venice Premiere (Exclusive)The Hollywood Reporter · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by Septe…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.