Government shutdown by October 1?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 18.0¢
- Implied chance
- 18.0%
- Return if right
- 455.6%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 555.6 shares at 18.0¢ each.
YES wins: $555.56 back, a profit of $455.56. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $69.44 of that profit. Without it you would make $525.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 86.0¢
- Implied chance
- 86.0%
- Return if right
- 16.3%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.
NO wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.05.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Police use teargas on young Indians as government jobs protest escalatesThe Guardian · 2h ago
- Modernizing government technology is starting to pay off — let's keep goingThe Hill · 2h ago
- The Other Way to Reduce Government DebtBloomberg · 2h ago
- UK Government funds 33 automotive projects via Drive35Yahoo Finance · 3h ago
- Evaluating Datadog’s Reincorporation Proposal and Governance RoadmapYahoo Finance · 4h ago
- Congressional Republicans have proven themselves unworthy to governThe Hill · 4h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Government shutdown by October 1?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time - An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency") The following will not qualify as a shutdown: - A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations - Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.