Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 27.0¢
- Implied chance
- 27.0%
- Return if right
- 270.4%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 370.4 shares at 27.0¢ each.
YES wins: $370.37 back, a profit of $270.37. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $170.17 of that profit. Without it you would make $440.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 51%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.59 of that profit. Without it you would make $22.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Gavin Newsom puts Spanish-style California mansion up for sale for $7.5mThe Guardian · 18h ago
- Gavin Newsom says California will sue Trump administration again to block ‘Orwellian rules’ meant to curb mail-in voting – as it happenedThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Trump Accounts Get an Unlikely Endorser: Gavin NewsomThe New York Times · 5d ago
- Gavin Newsom Says Paramount Settlement Talks Happening in “Real Time,” Signals He’d Like a DealThe Hollywood Reporter · 5d ago
- Gavin Newsom avoids question on bringing back SAT scores after UC open letter, asks 'show me the data'Fox News · 6d ago
- Gavin Newsom's 'hidden climate tax' hitting Americans nationwide, lawmaker warnsFox News · 16d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of either Governor Gavin Newsom or Jennifer Siebel Newsom between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.