Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.7¢
- Implied chance
- 4.7%
- Return if right
- 2027.7%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 2127.7 shares at 4.7¢ each.
YES wins: $2127.66 back, a profit of $2027.66. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $341.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $2369.14.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.6¢
- Implied chance
- 96.6%
- Return if right
- 3.5%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 103.5 shares at 96.6¢ each.
NO wins: $103.52 back, a profit of $3.52. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.70 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 4, 03:14 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- REPLAY: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in post-vote commentsFrance 24 · 13d ago
- German state elections deal a blow to Chancellor Friedrich MerzDeutsche Welle · 13d ago
- Pressure is mounting on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz after his CDU's defeats in two state elections. Follow liveDeutsche Welle · 14d ago
- 16 months after he became chancellor, Germans are asking whether Friedrich Merz is right for the jobDeutsche Welle · 17d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.