French election called by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.3¢
- Implied chance
- 8.3%
- Return if right
- 1104.8%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 1204.8 shares at 8.3¢ each.
YES wins: $1204.82 back, a profit of $1104.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $102.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $1207.19.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.28.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “French election called by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.