FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.9¢
- Implied chance
- 2.9%
- Return if right
- 3348.3%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 3448.3 shares at 2.9¢ each.
YES wins: $3448.28 back, a profit of $3348.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2801.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $6150.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.7¢
- Implied chance
- 99.7%
- Return if right
- 0.3%
- Spread cost
- 81%
If you put in $100
You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.
NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Israel now describes FlyDubai attacker as a "lone wolf" extremistCBS News · 4h ago
- Israel PM Says Flydubai Pilot Is Omani, US May Send 10,000 More Troops to MideastBloomberg · 3d ago
- Investigators probing motive in cockpit attack on Israel-bound FlyDubai flightCBS News · 4d ago
- Flydubai attack gives Netanyahu new security message ahead of Israel voteAl Jazeera · 4d ago
- 5 Passengers on FlyDubai Flight to Receive Israel’s Award for HeroismThe New York Times · 4d ago
- What to know about the terrifying FlyDubai flight bound for IsraelFrance 24 · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. The co-pilot was taken into custody in Saudi Arabia (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the referenced co-pilot is transported to Israeli custody within the territory of Israel between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The co-pilot must actually enter Israeli territory for this market to resolve to “Yes.” Announcements or statements of intent will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Saudi Arabia and Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.