Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.0¢
- Implied chance
- 6.0%
- Return if right
- 1566.7%
- Spread cost
- 28%
If you put in $100
You get 1666.7 shares at 6.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1666.67 back, a profit of $1566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $606.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $2172.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.2¢
- Implied chance
- 97.2%
- Return if right
- 2.9%
- Spread cost
- 37%
If you put in $100
You get 102.9 shares at 97.2¢ each.
NO wins: $102.88 back, a profit of $2.88. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘Another coup d’état’: fears grow as Flávio Bolsonaro vows to ‘re-democratise’ BrazilThe Guardian · 12h ago
- Flávio Bolsonaro’s advance in Brazil’s election is grim jolt for climate campaignersThe Guardian · 14h ago
- Brazil Market Euphoria Hinges on Fixes Flávio Bolsonaro Is Yet to Lay OutBloomberg · 2d ago
- Flávio Bolsonaro rides right-wing wave to win first round of Brazil electionBBC News · 2d ago
- Far right on the march and Lula’s failures: key drivers of Flávio Bolsonaro’s Brazil surgeThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Flávio Bolsonaro poised to win Brazilian presidency after shock first-round victoryThe Guardian · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.