Fed rate hike in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 55.0¢
- Implied chance
- 55.0%
- Return if right
- 81.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.
YES wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $83.49.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 46.0¢
- Implied chance
- 46.0%
- Return if right
- 117.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 217.4 shares at 46.0¢ each.
NO wins: $217.39 back, a profit of $117.39. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $119.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Fed rate hike in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.