EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 49.0¢
- Implied chance
- 49.0%
- Return if right
- 104.1%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 204.1 shares at 49.0¢ each.
YES wins: $204.08 back, a profit of $104.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $108.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 53.0¢
- Implied chance
- 53.0%
- Return if right
- 88.7%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 188.7 shares at 53.0¢ each.
NO wins: $188.68 back, a profit of $88.68. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $92.31.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the national government of any European Union member state officially attributes a qualifying attack on its territory to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying attack is an act of sabotage or arson, the placement or detonation of an explosive or incendiary device, or a physical attack on persons or property, carried out within the territory of an EU member state on or after August 1, 2026. The following will not qualify: cyber operations; electronic interference such as GPS jamming or spoofing; espionage, surveillance, or reconnaissance; disinformation or influence operations; violations of airspace or territorial waters; drones, missiles, or other munitions launched by Russian armed forces, whether or not they are intercepted; and threats or plots that were not carried out. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity stating that the attack was carried out, ordered, or directed by the Russian state, including its armed forces or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by that state’s prosecutors alleging that the attack was carried out on behalf of the aforementioned Russian state services will also qualify. Statements describing Russian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that an attack bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Russian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials, by governments of other countries, or by EU or NATO institutions will not qualify on their own. Attributions made before market creation, and re-attributions regarding previously attributed attacks, will not qualify. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Russian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the government of the relevant EU member state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.