Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 22.0¢
- Implied chance
- 22.0%
- Return if right
- 354.5%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 454.5 shares at 22.0¢ each.
YES wins: $454.55 back, a profit of $354.55. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $33.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $387.80.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 81.0¢
- Implied chance
- 81.0%
- Return if right
- 23.5%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 123.5 shares at 81.0¢ each.
NO wins: $123.46 back, a profit of $23.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $25.79.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Federal agents seize devices from ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell in sexual misconduct probe, AP source saysNPR · 21h ago
- Aisha Wahab wins special election to serve out remainder of Eric Swalwell's termCBS News · 1d ago
- Progressive Aisha Wahab wins California special election to fill Eric Swalwell seatThe Guardian · 1d ago
- Aisha Wahab Wins California Special Election to Replace Eric SwalwellThe New York Times · 1d ago
- Democrat Aisha Wahab wins the special election for Eric Swalwell’s former California districtNBC News · 1d ago
- Here's why federal authorities are investigating Eric Swalwell for alleged sexual misconductCBS News · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Eric Swalwell charged by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Swalwell between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.