Eric Swalwell arrested by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 23.1¢
- Implied chance
- 23.1%
- Return if right
- 332.9%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 432.9 shares at 23.1¢ each.
YES wins: $432.90 back, a profit of $332.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $27.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $360.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 79.7¢
- Implied chance
- 79.7%
- Return if right
- 25.5%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 125.5 shares at 79.7¢ each.
NO wins: $125.47 back, a profit of $25.47. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.24 of that profit. Without it you would make $27.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Federal agents seize devices from ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell in sexual misconduct probe, AP source saysNPR · 22h ago
- Aisha Wahab wins special election to serve out remainder of Eric Swalwell's termCBS News · 1d ago
- Progressive Aisha Wahab wins California special election to fill Eric Swalwell seatThe Guardian · 1d ago
- Aisha Wahab Wins California Special Election to Replace Eric SwalwellThe New York Times · 1d ago
- Democrat Aisha Wahab wins the special election for Eric Swalwell’s former California districtNBC News · 1d ago
- Here's why federal authorities are investigating Eric Swalwell for alleged sexual misconductCBS News · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Eric Swalwell arrested by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.