Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.4¢
- Implied chance
- 1.4%
- Return if right
- 7042.9%
- Spread cost
- 22%
If you put in $100
You get 7142.9 shares at 1.4¢ each.
YES wins: $7142.86 back, a profit of $7042.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1948.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $8990.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.2¢
- Implied chance
- 99.2%
- Return if right
- 0.8%
- Spread cost
- 27%
If you put in $100
You get 100.8 shares at 99.2¢ each.
NO wins: $100.81 back, a profit of $0.81. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Federal authorities investigating attorney, accountant linked to Epstein’s estate, source saysNBC News · 19h ago
- EXCLUSIVE: Ossoff challenged to return Epstein-linked donation or retract ‘Epstein class’ attackFox News · 1d ago
- Rosie O’Donnell Says ABC Blocked Her From Having Jeffrey Epstein Survivors on ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live’: ‘They Were Certain That Could Not Happen’Variety · 2d ago
- Big Questions: Does Satoshi actually own 1.1 million Bitcoin?Cointelegraph · 2d ago
- The House left town, but Hegseth impeachment, Epstein and a funding fight are waitingAxios · 6d ago
- Khanna, Massie say they can force another Epstein voteAxios · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.