Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

Q: Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 0%. A YES share costs 0.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 33233.3% over 10d.

Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?$1k liquidity$13 volumecloses 10d

CulturePoliticsTweet Markets

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.3¢
Implied chance: 0.3%
Return if right: 33233.3%
Spread cost: 17%

If you put in $100

You get 33333.3 shares at 0.3¢ each.

YES wins: $33333.33 back, a profit of $33233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $39900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.8¢
Implied chance: 99.8%
Return if right: 0.2%
Spread cost: 20%

If you put in $100

You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.

NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.25.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

440-4590.3%

Latest: Sep 1, 10:28 AM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 4 to Septe…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 4 12:00 PM ET to September 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Source: https://x.com/elonmusk