Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

Q: Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 0%. A YES share costs 0.2¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 49900.0% over 18h.

Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?$33k liquidity$148k volumecloses 18h

CulturePoliticsTweet Markets

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.2¢
Implied chance: 0.2%
Return if right: 49900.0%
Spread cost: 25%

If you put in $100

You get 50000.0 shares at 0.2¢ each.

YES wins: $50000.00 back, a profit of $49900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $66566.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.9¢
Implied chance: 99.9%
Return if right: 0.1%
Spread cost: 33%

If you put in $100

You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.

NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 09:45 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 1…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Source: https://x.com/elonmusk