Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.0¢
- Implied chance
- 12.0%
- Return if right
- 733.3%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.
YES wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $75.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $809.09.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.36.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Doug Ford ceases to be Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Doug Ford's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.