Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)

Q: Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 47%. A YES share costs 47.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 112.8% over 6h.

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage$47 liquidity$2k volumecloses 3h

EsportsDota 2GamesSports

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 47.0¢
Implied chance: 47.0%
Return if right: 112.8%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 212.8 shares at 47.0¢ each.

YES wins: $212.77 back, a profit of $112.77. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.89.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 60.0¢
Implied chance: 60.0%
Return if right: 66.7%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 166.7 shares at 60.0¢ each.

NO wins: $166.67 back, a profit of $66.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.32 of that profit. Without it you would make $76.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 14, 11:01 AM2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 3 match between Aurora and Team Yandex in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex wins 2 or more games than Aurora in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aurora". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 14, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Source: https://www.dotabuff.com