Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 45.0¢
- Implied chance
- 45.0%
- Return if right
- 122.2%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 222.2 shares at 45.0¢ each.
YES wins: $222.22 back, a profit of $122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $37.52 of that profit. Without it you would make $159.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 68.0¢
- Implied chance
- 68.0%
- Return if right
- 47.1%
- Spread cost
- 25%
If you put in $100
You get 147.1 shares at 68.0¢ each.
NO wins: $147.06 back, a profit of $47.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $62.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Indonesia Copper Shipments Delayed by Gresik Smelter OutageBloomberg · 4h ago
- Chile Gives Struggling Copper Giant Codelco a $2.4 Billion BoostBloomberg · 14h ago
- TNR Gold says Los Azules copper project advances toward final investment decisionYahoo Finance · 20h ago
- Resolution Copper awards $110m contracts for Arizona mineYahoo Finance · 23h ago
- Resolution Copper awards $110m contracts for Arizona mineYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Copper Holds $14,000 as Weaker US Rate Outlook Boosts MetalsBloomberg · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress. A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way. A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement. Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions. Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.