Closer Senate Race: Kansas or Nebraska?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 55.0¢
- Implied chance
- 55.0%
- Return if right
- 81.8%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 181.8 shares at 55.0¢ each.
YES wins: $181.82 back, a profit of $81.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $88.68.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 49.0¢
- Implied chance
- 49.0%
- Return if right
- 104.1%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 204.1 shares at 49.0¢ each.
NO wins: $204.08 back, a profit of $104.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.68 of that profit. Without it you would make $112.77.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Watch live: Trump rallies Nebraska voters with GOP on defenseThe Hill · 9h ago
- White House removes Politico from press pool for Trump’s trip to NebraskaNBC News · 10h ago
- Trump heads to deep-red Nebraska for campaign rallyABC News · 13h ago
- Trump heads to Nebraska as Republicans fear strongholds could flipFrance 24 · 18h ago
- Live updates: Supreme Court weighs energy firms' fight against climate suits; Trump heads to NebraskaThe Hill · 18h ago
- Intesa Edges Closer to Paschi Deal After Swaying Key InvestorBloomberg · 21h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Closer Senate Race: Kansas or Nebraska?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Kansas" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Kansas has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Nebraska Senate election. This market will resolve to "Nebraska" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Nebraska has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Kansas Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.