Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.2¢
- Implied chance
- 5.2%
- Return if right
- 1823.1%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 1923.1 shares at 5.2¢ each.
YES wins: $1923.08 back, a profit of $1823.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $18.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $1841.75.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.9¢
- Implied chance
- 94.9%
- Return if right
- 5.4%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 105.4 shares at 94.9¢ each.
NO wins: $105.37 back, a profit of $5.37. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.43.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Swiss Re announces India and Mexico partnershipsYahoo Finance · 3h ago
- Borderlands Mexico: USMCA gives Mexico an edge as global trade barriers riseYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Slain California fire captain’s wife admits murder after Mexico capture, serving time for killing first spouseFox News · 2d ago
- US Partly Resumes Operations in Mexico’s Avocado State MichoacanBloomberg · 3d ago
- Flesh-eating screwworms feast on humans in Mexico; human cases top 500Ars Technica · 3d ago
- US police officer accused of killing three people in Mexico arrested at borderThe Guardian · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.