Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 35.0¢
- Implied chance
- 35.0%
- Return if right
- 185.7%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 285.7 shares at 35.0¢ each.
YES wins: $285.71 back, a profit of $185.71. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $194.12.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 67.0¢
- Implied chance
- 67.0%
- Return if right
- 49.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 149.3 shares at 67.0¢ each.
NO wins: $149.25 back, a profit of $49.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $51.52.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 04:09 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Anthropic Says Claude Found Something Big in DNA. It Just Doesn't Know WhatDecrypt · 5h ago
- China Probes DeepSeek and Moonshot Over Alleged Data Leaks to Anthropic's ClaudeDecrypt · 7h ago
- Claude AI September Portfolio: Top 2 PicksYahoo Finance · 14h ago
- OpenAI Launches GPT-6 Sol and Luna Minutes After Anthropic Drops Claude Opus 5.5Decrypt · 1d ago
- Anthropic’s New Claude Opus 5.5 Matches Fable at 60% the PriceDecrypt · 1d ago
- Anthropic launches Claude Opus 5.5 with stricter safeguards for cybersecurityThe Verge · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.