China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.4¢
- Implied chance
- 6.4%
- Return if right
- 1462.5%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 1562.5 shares at 6.4¢ each.
YES wins: $1562.50 back, a profit of $1462.50. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.30 of that profit. Without it you would make $1474.80.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.7¢
- Implied chance
- 93.7%
- Return if right
- 6.7%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 106.7 shares at 93.7¢ each.
NO wins: $106.72 back, a profit of $6.72. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Taiwan braces for possible Chinese invasion with military drillsCBS News · 5h ago
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Headlines are matched on the names in “China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.