China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 29.0¢
- Implied chance
- 29.0%
- Return if right
- 244.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 344.8 shares at 29.0¢ each.
YES wins: $344.83 back, a profit of $244.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $250.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 72.0¢
- Implied chance
- 72.0%
- Return if right
- 38.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.
NO wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $39.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Once Sentenced to Death, Mary Jane Veloso Receives Pardon in the PhilippinesThe New York Times · 3h ago
- Philippine Home Price Growth at Seven-Year Low Amid Weak DemandBloomberg · 6h ago
- Philippines to Sell, Switch Short-Term Retail Peso Bonds as Rates RiseBloomberg · 1d ago
- Philippines Eyes New Retail Peso Bond at 25-Year MilestoneBloomberg · 2d ago
- Chinese Coast Guard rams Philippine boat in South China Sea, sparking diplomatic clashFox News · 3d ago
- An Unused and Divisive Philippine Nuclear Plant Awaits Its FateThe New York Times · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “China x Philippines military clash before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.