Prediction markets currently price this at 56%. A YES share costs 56.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 78.6% over 11d.

UCLA vs. California

UCLA vs. California$7k liquidity$0 volumecloses 11d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 56.0¢
Implied chance: 56.0%
Return if right: 78.6%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 178.6 shares at 56.0¢ each.

YES wins: $178.57 back, a profit of $78.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $85.19.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 48.0¢
Implied chance: 48.0%
Return if right: 108.3%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 208.3 shares at 48.0¢ each.

NO wins: $208.33 back, a profit of $108.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $117.39.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 26, 02:32 AM

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “UCLA vs. California”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 10:30PM ET: If UCLA wins, the market will resolve to "UCLA". If California wins, the market will resolve to "California". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Source: https://www.ncaa.com/