Prediction markets currently price this at 32%. A YES share costs 32.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 212.5% over 8d.

UAB vs. Illinois

UAB vs. Illinois$4k liquidity$0 volumecloses 8d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 32.0¢
Implied chance: 32.0%
Return if right: 212.5%
Spread cost: 53%

If you put in $100

You get 312.5 shares at 32.0¢ each.

YES wins: $312.50 back, a profit of $212.50. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $243.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $455.56.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 96.0¢
Implied chance: 96.0%
Return if right: 4.2%
Spread cost: 81%

If you put in $100

You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.

NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $21.95.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 27, 11:30 AM

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “UAB vs. Illinois”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 3 at 9:00PM ET: If UAB wins, the market will resolve to "UAB". If Illinois wins, the market will resolve to "Illinois". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Source: https://www.ncaa.com/