Liberty vs. James Madison

Q: Liberty vs. James Madison

Prediction markets currently price this at 34%. A YES share costs 34.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 194.1% over 11d.

Liberty vs. James Madison$6k liquidity$0 volumecloses 11d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 34.0¢
Implied chance: 34.0%
Return if right: 194.1%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 294.1 shares at 34.0¢ each.

YES wins: $294.12 back, a profit of $194.12. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $28.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $222.58.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 72.0¢
Implied chance: 72.0%
Return if right: 38.9%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.

NO wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $44.93.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 26, 02:32 AM

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Liberty vs. James Madison”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 12:00PM ET: If Liberty wins, the market will resolve to "Liberty". If James Madison wins, the market will resolve to "James Madison". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Source: https://www.ncaa.com/