Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.3¢
- Implied chance
- 5.3%
- Return if right
- 1786.8%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 1886.8 shares at 5.3¢ each.
YES wins: $1886.79 back, a profit of $1786.79. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $852.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $2639.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.0¢
- Implied chance
- 98.0%
- Return if right
- 2.0%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.
NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.79.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- A Transcript From The Times Interview with Prime Minister Mark Carney of CanadaThe New York Times · 57m ago
- Carney Seeks New Trade Partners for Canada, But Knows the LimitsThe New York Times · 2d ago
- US ambassador to China: 'Best thing' from Xi visit 'is to continue the conversation'The Hill · 2d ago
- Why is Canada’s PM Carney not ruling out a possible war with the USAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Canada seeks new role in global economyFrance 24 · 3d ago
- Canada’s Oscar Entry, Berlin Prizewinner ‘Nina Roza’ Acquired in U.S. by Dekanalog (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.