Canada applies for full EU membership by December 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 33.0¢
- Implied chance
- 33.0%
- Return if right
- 203.0%
- Spread cost
- 51%
If you put in $100
You get 303.0 shares at 33.0¢ each.
YES wins: $303.03 back, a profit of $203.03. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $209.79 of that profit. Without it you would make $412.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 74%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $24.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Mark Carney Interview: Canada’s Leader Lays Out Vision for Breaking Reliance on U.S.The New York Times · 10h ago
- Canada’s Capital Bids Good Riddance to Trump Avenue as Tensions With U.S. RiseThe New York Times · 11h ago
- International Emmy Nominations: United Kingdom Leads This Year’s Tally; Canada’s ‘Heated Rivalry’ Doesn’t Make the CutVariety · 13h ago
- Canada's Six Biggest Banks Team Up on a Shared Digital-Dollar NetworkDecrypt · 16h ago
- Canada's Six Biggest Banks Team Up on a Shared Digital-Dollar NetworkYahoo Finance · 16h ago
- The EU’s Canada offer is more mood than reality but it could hint at a future geometry for the blocThe Guardian · 19h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Canada applies for full EU membership by December 31, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Government of Canada formally submits an application for Canada to become an EU member state to the European Union by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal application means a written request for Canada to become a member state of the European Union The application must be submitted by the Government of Canada or by a representative acting with its authority. An application will qualify even if it seeks or anticipates opt-outs, exemptions, or transition periods on specific European Union policies. A request, proposal, negotiation, or agreement concerning associate membership, an "Alliance for the Future" or other partnership, an association agreement, a framework agreement, membership in the European Economic Area, a customs union, or any other status short of membership will not qualify. Statements of intent, expressions of interest, exploratory talks, parliamentary motions, petitions, and proposals or invitations from the European Union or any of its member states will not qualify. Once a qualifying application has been submitted, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the European Union accepts, rejects, deems inadmissible, or acts on the application, and whether the application is later withdrawn. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Government of Canada, the Council of the European Union, the European Council, and the European Commission; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.