California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
BUY YES
- Cost
- 91.0¢
- Implied chance
- 91.0%
- Return if right
- 9.9%
- Spread cost
- 27%
If you put in $100
You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.
YES wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $13.64.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 15.0¢
- Implied chance
- 15.0%
- Return if right
- 566.7%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 666.7 shares at 15.0¢ each.
NO wins: $666.67 back, a profit of $566.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $166.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $733.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).