Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 38.0¢
- Implied chance
- 38.0%
- Return if right
- 163.2%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 263.2 shares at 38.0¢ each.
YES wins: $263.16 back, a profit of $163.16. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $185.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 68.0¢
- Implied chance
- 68.0%
- Return if right
- 47.1%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 147.1 shares at 68.0¢ each.
NO wins: $147.06 back, a profit of $47.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.79 of that profit. Without it you would make $53.85.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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How this market resolves
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Other outcomes in Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?
- Will Renan Santos win 8% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- Will Renan Santos win less than 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- Will Renan Santos win between 6% and 8% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?