Prediction markets currently price this at 26%. A YES share costs 26.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 284.6% over 7d.

Iran vs. New Zealand

Iran vs. New Zealand$5k liquidity$62 volumecloses 7d

SportsGamesBasketballFIBA WCQ Asia

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 26.0¢
Implied chance: 26.0%
Return if right: 284.6%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 384.6 shares at 26.0¢ each.

YES wins: $384.62 back, a profit of $284.62. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $300.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 76.0¢
Implied chance: 76.0%
Return if right: 31.6%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 131.6 shares at 76.0¢ each.

NO wins: $131.58 back, a profit of $31.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $33.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 28, 01:36 AM

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Iran vs. New Zealand”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Asia game, scheduled for August 28 at 6:00AM ET: If the Iran win, the market will resolve to "Iran". If the New Zealand win, the market will resolve to "New Zealand". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Source: https://www.fiba.basketball/basketballworldcup/2027/qualifiers