Bitcoin Up or Down on August 21?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 54.0¢
- Implied chance
- 54.0%
- Return if right
- 85.2%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 185.2 shares at 54.0¢ each.
YES wins: $185.19 back, a profit of $85.19. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $88.68.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 48.0¢
- Implied chance
- 48.0%
- Return if right
- 108.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 208.3 shares at 48.0¢ each.
NO wins: $208.33 back, a profit of $108.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $112.77.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- XRP Notches Best Week Since 2024 Election Pump on Bitcoin Short SqueezeYahoo Finance · 33m ago
- XRP Notches Best Week Since 2024 Election Pump on Bitcoin Short SqueezeDecrypt · 33m ago
- US debt tops $40T stoking debate on what it means for BitcoinCointelegraph · 35m ago
- Bitcoin ETFs Add Over $1B as Investor Sentiment Turns BullishBitcoin Magazine · 59m ago
- Iranian Hackers Tied to $6 Million Bitcoin Extortion Charged in Massive Cyber CampaignDecrypt · 1h ago
- Bitcoin’s rally pushes past $72,000 as analysts see demand beyond historic short squeezeThe Block · 1h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Bitcoin Up or Down on August 21?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT