Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 99.3¢
- Implied chance
- 99.3%
- Return if right
- 0.7%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.
YES wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.76.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 0.8¢
- Implied chance
- 0.8%
- Return if right
- 12400.0%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 12500.0 shares at 0.8¢ each.
NO wins: $12500.00 back, a profit of $12400.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $833.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $13233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Bitcoin ETFs draw $517M in largest one-day inflow since early MayCointelegraph · 12m ago
- Bitcoin rally sparks debate whether Clarity Act is already priced inCoinDesk · 41m ago
- Bitcoin breaks out of six-week range, tops $71,000 as $3 billion in shorts get wiped outCoinDesk · 43m ago
- Crypto short liquidations pass $3B mark as Bitcoin price nears $72KCointelegraph · 1h ago
- Bitcoin hits $72,000 as Strategy and Coinbase continue rallyCoinDesk · 2h ago
- Spot bitcoin ETFs report $517 million in net inflows, largest in 3.5 monthsThe Block · 5h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT