Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 32.0¢
- Implied chance
- 32.0%
- Return if right
- 212.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 312.5 shares at 32.0¢ each.
YES wins: $312.50 back, a profit of $212.50. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $217.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 69.0¢
- Implied chance
- 69.0%
- Return if right
- 44.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 144.9 shares at 69.0¢ each.
NO wins: $144.93 back, a profit of $44.93. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $45.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- California voters back a billionaire tax, but the proposal falls short of majority supportNBC News · 2d ago
- Jensen Huang Isn't 'Afraid' of Paying $8 Billion in California's Billionaire Tax: Nvidia CEO Says This Is What Scares Him InsteadYahoo Finance · 10d ago
- Entrepreneur Warns California’s Billionaire Tax Could Trigger Exodus: ‘They’re Just Not Going to Want to Stay’Yahoo Finance · 10d ago
- Fewer than half of California voters back billionaire tax: PollThe Hill · 11d ago
- Mitt Romney warned a billionaire tax triggers demand for 2 assets — now California decides. Get in before the super-richYahoo Finance · 13d ago
- California entrepreneur warns billionaire wealth tax could trigger 'giant sucking sound' of business exitsYahoo Finance · 13d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California electio…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.