Berlin State Election: SPD Over/Under 13%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.8¢
- Implied chance
- 0.8%
- Return if right
- 12400.0%
- Spread cost
- 38%
If you put in $100
You get 12500.0 shares at 0.8¢ each.
YES wins: $12500.00 back, a profit of $12400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7500.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $19900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.8¢
- Implied chance
- 99.8%
- Return if right
- 0.2%
- Spread cost
- 60%
If you put in $100
You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.
NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.30 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Berlin State Election: SPD Over/Under 13%?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).