Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Q: Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets currently price this at 5%. A YES share costs 5.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1900.0% over 1.4mo.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?$2k liquidity$2k volumecloses 1.4mo

MexicoBanxicoEconomyFinanceGlobal RatesMacro Indicators

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 5.0¢
Implied chance: 5.0%
Return if right: 1900.0%
Spread cost: 44%

If you put in $100

You get 2000.0 shares at 5.0¢ each.

YES wins: $2000.00 back, a profit of $1900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1508.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $3408.77.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.3¢
Implied chance: 99.3%
Return if right: 0.7%
Spread cost: 76%

If you put in $100

You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.

NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.93.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 04:22 AM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after Nove…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Source: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp