Set Handicap: Hayato Matsuoka (-1.5) vs Arthur Weber (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Hayato Matsuoka (-1.5) vs Arthur Weber (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 70%. A YES share costs 70.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 42.9% over 5d.

Hangzhou Open, Qualification: Arthur Weber vs Hayato Matsuoka$174 liquidity$133 volumecloses 5d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 70.0¢
Implied chance: 70.0%
Return if right: 42.9%
Spread cost: 25%

If you put in $100

You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.

YES wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $14.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $57.48.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 43.0¢
Implied chance: 43.0%
Return if right: 132.6%
Spread cost: 24%

If you put in $100

You get 232.6 shares at 43.0¢ each.

NO wins: $232.56 back, a profit of $132.56. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $41.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $173.97.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 08:00 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Hayato Matsuoka and Arthur Weber in the Hangzhou Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Hayato Matsuoka" if Hayato Matsuoka wins by 2 or more sets than Arthur Weber, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Arthur Weber." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Hayato Matsuoka can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Arthur Weber." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current