Set Handicap: Serna (-1.5) vs Barton (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Serna (-1.5) vs Barton (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 16%. A YES share costs 16.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 525.0% over 7d.

Augsburg: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Hynek Barton$4k liquidity$0 volumecloses 7d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 16.0¢
Implied chance: 16.0%
Return if right: 525.0%
Spread cost: 15%

If you put in $100

You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.

YES wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $89.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $614.29.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 88.0¢
Implied chance: 88.0%
Return if right: 13.6%
Spread cost: 16%

If you put in $100

You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.

NO wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.28.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 25, 10:18 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel La Serna and Hynek Barton in the Augsburg, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Serna" if Juan Manuel La Serna wins by 2 or more sets than Hynek Barton, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Barton." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current