Ostapenkov vs. Bax: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

Q: Ostapenkov vs. Bax: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

Prediction markets currently price this at 83%. A YES share costs 83.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 20.5% over 1d.

Istanbul 2: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Florent Bax$422 liquidity$0 volumecloses 1d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 83.0¢
Implied chance: 83.0%
Return if right: 20.5%
Spread cost: 75%

If you put in $100

You get 120.5 shares at 83.0¢ each.

YES wins: $120.48 back, a profit of $20.48. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $63.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $83.49.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 74.0¢
Implied chance: 74.0%
Return if right: 35.1%
Spread cost: 71%

If you put in $100

You get 135.1 shares at 74.0¢ each.

NO wins: $135.14 back, a profit of $35.14. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $84.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $119.78.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 5, 01:00 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Ostapenkov vs. Bax: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Ostapenkov and Florent Bax in the Istanbul 2, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current