Set 1 Winner: Alexandre Muller vs Luka Pavlovic

Q: Set 1 Winner: Alexandre Muller vs Luka Pavlovic

Prediction markets currently price this at 99%. A YES share costs 99.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1.0% over 5d.

Chengdu Open, Qualification: Alexandre Muller vs Luka Pavlovic$2k liquidity$33 volumecloses 5d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 99.0¢
Implied chance: 99.0%
Return if right: 1.0%
Spread cost: 51%

If you put in $100

You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.

YES wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.04.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 3.0¢
Implied chance: 3.0%
Return if right: 3233.3%
Spread cost: 34%

If you put in $100

You get 3333.3 shares at 3.0¢ each.

NO wins: $3333.33 back, a profit of $3233.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $4900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 07:00 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 1 Winner: Alexandre Muller vs Luka Pavlovic”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexandre Muller and Luka Pavlovic in the Chengdu Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Alexandre Muller” if Alexandre Muller wins the first set. It will resolve to “Luka Pavlovic” if Luka Pavlovic wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current