Set 1 Winner: Mrva vs Basile

Q: Set 1 Winner: Mrva vs Basile

Prediction markets currently price this at 69%. A YES share costs 69.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 44.9% over 7d.

Todi: Maxim Mrva vs Pierluigi Basile$590 liquidity$2k volumecloses 7d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 69.0¢
Implied chance: 69.0%
Return if right: 44.9%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 144.9 shares at 69.0¢ each.

YES wins: $144.93 back, a profit of $44.93. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $45.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 32.0¢
Implied chance: 32.0%
Return if right: 212.5%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 312.5 shares at 32.0¢ each.

NO wins: $312.50 back, a profit of $212.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $217.46.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 07:48 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 1 Winner: Mrva vs Basile”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Maxim Mrva and Pierluigi Basile in the Todi, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Mrva” if Maxim Mrva wins the first set. It will resolve to “Basile” if Pierluigi Basile wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current